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MUĞLA KONUT PİYASASINDA YATIRIMCI PSİKOLOJİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 34 - 51, 30.06.2021

Öz

Yatırımcıların karar alma süreci pek çok önyargı ve duygulara dayanmaktadır. Bu nedenle piyasalarda özellikle de finansal piyasalarda genellikle sınırlı rasyonalitenin hakim olduğu görülmektedir. Muhafazakarlık, optimizm, geri görüş, pişmanlıktan kaçınma, aşırı güven, sürü davranışı, aşinalık, kendine atfetme, aşırı veya eksik duyarlılık bunlardan en göze çarpanlarıdır. Bu önyargı ve duygular aynı anda pek çok yatırımcıyı etkisi altına alarak kartopu etkisi yaratmakta ve piyasalarda köpüklere yol açarak ani fiyat çöküşlerini beraberinde getirebilmektedir. Finansal piyasalar gibi konut piyasasında da bu tür eğilimlerin varlığı yadsınamaz. Konut piyasasında, diğer piyasalarda olduğu gibi yatırımcılar duygularının ve önyargılarının etkisi altında kararlar almaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Muğla konut piyasasında yatırımcıların hangi psikolojik eğilimlerle yatırım kararları aldıkları araştırılmıştır. Bunun için rastgele seçilen 70 konut sahibiyle derinlemesine mülakat anketi gerçekleştirilerek konut piyasasına dair psikolojik eğilimleri ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Muğla konut piyasasında yatırım yapanlar muhafazakar, aşinalık önyargısına sahip ve risk almaktan kaçınan yatırımcı tipine uygun hareket etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Baker, H. K. ve Nofsınger, J. R. (2010) “Behavioral Finance: An Overview”, Baker at al. (eds.) Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations and Markets, New Jersey, John Wiley&Sons Inc.
  • Barber, B. M. ve Odean, T. (2001) “Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116 (1), 261-292.
  • Barberis, N. ve Huang, M. (2001) “Mental Accounting, Less Aversion and Individual Stock Returns”, The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1247-1292.
  • Collyns, C. ve Senhadji, A. (2002) “Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and The Asian Crisis”, IMF Working Paper, 02(20), 1-45.
  • Coval, J. D. ve Shumway, T. (2005) “Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices”, The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 1-34.
  • Diamond, P. ve Vartıainen, H. (2007) “Behavioral Economics and Its Applications”, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Dolvin, S. D. (2005) “Can Cognitive Error Explain The Ipo Partial Adjustment Phenomenon”, Klein (ed.) Stock Exchanges, IPO’s and Mutual Funds, New York, Nova Science Publishers.
  • Döm, S. (2003) “Yatırımcı Psikolojisi: IMKB Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, İstanbul: Değişim Yayınları.
  • Ferris, S., Haugen, R. ve Makhija, A. (1988) “Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect”, Journal of Finance, 43(3), 677-697.
  • Fischer, S. ve Modigliani, F. (1986) “Towards an Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation”, Review of World Economics, 64, 810-833.
  • Fischhoff B. (1975) “Hindsight Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgement Under Uncertainty”, Journal of Experimental Psychology, 288-299.
  • Foad, H. (2010) “Familiarity Bias”, Baker et al. (eds.) Behavioral Finance: İnvestors, Corporations and Markets, New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Fogel, S. O’Curry ve Berry, T. (2010) “The Disposition Effect and Individual Investor Decisions: The Roles of Regret and Counterfactual Alternatives” Bruce (ed.) Handbook of Behavioral Finance, UK, Edward Elgar Pub. Lmt.
  • Gigerenzer, G. ve Selten, R. (2002) “Bounded Rationality The Adaptive Toolbox”, Gigerenzer et al. (eds.) Rethinking Rationality, USA, MIT Press.
  • Greer, G. E. ve Kolbe, P. (2003) “Investment Analysis For Real Estate Decisions”, USA, Dearborn.
  • Kahneman, D. ve Tversky, A. (1979) “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
  • Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L ve Thaler, R. H. (1991) “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.
  • Kahneman, D. ve Riepe, M. W. (1998) “Aspects of Investor Psychology”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(4), 52-65.
  • Kindleberger, C. P. (1996) “Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises” New York: Wiley.
  • Lakonishok, J ve Smidt, S. (1986) “Volume for Winners and Losers: Taxation and Other Motives for Stock Trading”, Journal of Finance, 41(4), 951- 974.
  • Liu, Y. (1998) “Prospect Theory: Developments and Applications in Marketing”, Rutgers University Working Paper, 01, 1-34.
  • Patinkin, D. (1965) “Money, Interest and Prices”, New York: Harper & Row.
  • Pompian, M. M. (2011) “Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How To Build İnvestment Strategies That Account For İnvestor Biases”, New Jersey: Wiley Finance.
  • Redhead, K. A. (2008) “Behavioral Model of the Dot.com Bubble and Crash”, Economics, Finance and Accounting: Applied Research Working Paper Series, 1-39.
  • Shafir, E., Diamond, P. ve Tversky, A. (1997) “Money Illusion”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 342-374.
  • Shefrin, H. ve Statman, M. (1985) “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence”, The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 777-792.
  • Simon, H. A. (1982) “Models of Bounded Rationality”, Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Simon, H. A. (1997) “Models of Bounded Rationality: Empirically Grounded Economic Reason”, USA: MIT Press.

ANALYSIS OF INVESTORS PSYCHOLOGY IN MUGLA HOUSING MARKET

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 34 - 51, 30.06.2021

Öz

Limited rationality is mostly seen in the market because of the process of decision making based to the numerous prejudice/emotions. The most prominent them are conservatism, optimism, hindsight bias, disposition, overconfidence, herd behaviour, familiarity bias, self attribution, over/less sentiment. This prejudice/emotions create snow-ball effect due to the taking under the influence many investors in the same time and can bring sudden price collapse by causing of the bubbles in the markets. Determined under the influence of investors emotions and prejudices, as in the other markets in the housing market. In this study, investigated which owned the psychological tendency of investors in Mugla real-estate market. For this purpose in-depth interviews with randomly selected 70 investors and put forth to psychological tendency to the real-estate. According to the findings, investors that in Mugla real-estate market act suitable to investors type of the conservative, with familiarity bias, risk averse.

Kaynakça

  • Baker, H. K. ve Nofsınger, J. R. (2010) “Behavioral Finance: An Overview”, Baker at al. (eds.) Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations and Markets, New Jersey, John Wiley&Sons Inc.
  • Barber, B. M. ve Odean, T. (2001) “Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116 (1), 261-292.
  • Barberis, N. ve Huang, M. (2001) “Mental Accounting, Less Aversion and Individual Stock Returns”, The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1247-1292.
  • Collyns, C. ve Senhadji, A. (2002) “Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and The Asian Crisis”, IMF Working Paper, 02(20), 1-45.
  • Coval, J. D. ve Shumway, T. (2005) “Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices”, The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 1-34.
  • Diamond, P. ve Vartıainen, H. (2007) “Behavioral Economics and Its Applications”, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Dolvin, S. D. (2005) “Can Cognitive Error Explain The Ipo Partial Adjustment Phenomenon”, Klein (ed.) Stock Exchanges, IPO’s and Mutual Funds, New York, Nova Science Publishers.
  • Döm, S. (2003) “Yatırımcı Psikolojisi: IMKB Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, İstanbul: Değişim Yayınları.
  • Ferris, S., Haugen, R. ve Makhija, A. (1988) “Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect”, Journal of Finance, 43(3), 677-697.
  • Fischer, S. ve Modigliani, F. (1986) “Towards an Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation”, Review of World Economics, 64, 810-833.
  • Fischhoff B. (1975) “Hindsight Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgement Under Uncertainty”, Journal of Experimental Psychology, 288-299.
  • Foad, H. (2010) “Familiarity Bias”, Baker et al. (eds.) Behavioral Finance: İnvestors, Corporations and Markets, New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Fogel, S. O’Curry ve Berry, T. (2010) “The Disposition Effect and Individual Investor Decisions: The Roles of Regret and Counterfactual Alternatives” Bruce (ed.) Handbook of Behavioral Finance, UK, Edward Elgar Pub. Lmt.
  • Gigerenzer, G. ve Selten, R. (2002) “Bounded Rationality The Adaptive Toolbox”, Gigerenzer et al. (eds.) Rethinking Rationality, USA, MIT Press.
  • Greer, G. E. ve Kolbe, P. (2003) “Investment Analysis For Real Estate Decisions”, USA, Dearborn.
  • Kahneman, D. ve Tversky, A. (1979) “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
  • Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L ve Thaler, R. H. (1991) “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.
  • Kahneman, D. ve Riepe, M. W. (1998) “Aspects of Investor Psychology”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(4), 52-65.
  • Kindleberger, C. P. (1996) “Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises” New York: Wiley.
  • Lakonishok, J ve Smidt, S. (1986) “Volume for Winners and Losers: Taxation and Other Motives for Stock Trading”, Journal of Finance, 41(4), 951- 974.
  • Liu, Y. (1998) “Prospect Theory: Developments and Applications in Marketing”, Rutgers University Working Paper, 01, 1-34.
  • Patinkin, D. (1965) “Money, Interest and Prices”, New York: Harper & Row.
  • Pompian, M. M. (2011) “Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How To Build İnvestment Strategies That Account For İnvestor Biases”, New Jersey: Wiley Finance.
  • Redhead, K. A. (2008) “Behavioral Model of the Dot.com Bubble and Crash”, Economics, Finance and Accounting: Applied Research Working Paper Series, 1-39.
  • Shafir, E., Diamond, P. ve Tversky, A. (1997) “Money Illusion”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 342-374.
  • Shefrin, H. ve Statman, M. (1985) “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence”, The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 777-792.
  • Simon, H. A. (1982) “Models of Bounded Rationality”, Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Simon, H. A. (1997) “Models of Bounded Rationality: Empirically Grounded Economic Reason”, USA: MIT Press.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Gülbahar Atasever 0000-0001-7244-9243

Cem Baydur 0000-0002-2680-7350

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 15 Haziran 2021
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Atasever, G., & Baydur, C. (2021). MUĞLA KONUT PİYASASINDA YATIRIMCI PSİKOLOJİSİNİN ANALİZİ. Aydın İktisat Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 34-51.