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Trade Dynamics and Industrial Evolution: A Comprehensive Time Series Analysis of Turkey's Import-Export Trends and Manufacturing Growth (1923-2013)

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 5, 1334 - 1348, 03.11.2023

Öz

This study provides a comprehensive temporal analysis of Turkey's economic progression, focusing on its trade dynamics and manufacturing sector from 1923 to 2013. Utilizing time series analysis, we first delve into Turkey's import and export trends, observing a robust upward trajectory suggestive of sustained economic growth and greater integration into global trade networks. Periodic fluctuations, potentially reflective of global economic cycles or domestic policies, were also discerned. The manufacturing metrics—spanning the number of establishments, employment figures, annual payments, and input values—similarly showcased expansion, with year-on-year growth rates offering nuanced insights into the sector's evolution. Notably, correlations revealed a strong positive relationship between the proliferation of manufacturing establishments and employment figures, while annual payments and input values moved in congruence. Stationarity checks, crucial for time series forecasting, were conducted, leading to the application of the ARIMA modeling technique for predictive analysis. The model's predictions exhibited a close alignment with actual trade values, affirming its efficacy. Overall, this study elucidates Turkey's economic journey over nine decades, emphasizing its expanding trade engagements and consistent growth in the manufacturing realm.

Kaynakça

  • Balat, M. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey during the past two decades. Energy Policy, 36(1), 118-127. Bayar, Y. (2008). Turkish nation-building process: An analysis of language, education, and citizenship policies during the early Republic (1920-1938), https://escholarship.mcgill.ca/concern/theses/4m90dz76h.
  • Bilgin, P., & Ince, B. (2015). Security and citizenship in the global South: In/securing citizens in early republican Turkey (1923–1946). International Relations, 29 (4), 500-520.
  • Bulut, U., & Muratoglu, G. (2018). Renewable energy in Turkey: Great potential, low but increasing utilization, and an empirical analysis on renewable energy-growth nexus. Energy policy, 123, 240-250.
  • Cecen, A. A., Doğruel, A. S., & Doğruel, F. (1994). Economic growth and structural change in Turkey 1960–88. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 26 (1), 37-56.
  • Cetin, I. (2021). Audience as a temporal category: The tenth anniversary of Republic Day in Turkey. 18 (1).
  • Coşkun, V. (2013). Constitutional amendments under the justice and development party rule. Insight Turkey, 15 (4), 95-113.
  • Ertuğrul, A., & Selçuk, F. (2001). A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1980-2000. Russian & East European Finance and Trade, 37 (6), 6-30.
  • İlkkaracan, İ. (2012). Why so few women in the labor market in Turkey?. Feminist Economics, 18 (1), 1-37.
  • Nas, T. F., & Perry, M. J. (2000). Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and monetary policy in Turkey: 1960–1998. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18 (2), 170-180.
  • Öniş, Z., & Senses, F. (2007). Global dynamics, domestic coalitions and a reactive state: Major policy shifts in post-war Turkish economic development. METU Economic Research Center Working Paper, http://erc.metu.edu.tr/en/system/files/menu/series07/0706.pdf
  • Khlif, H., Hussainey, K., & Achek, I. (2015). The effect of national culture on the association between profitability and corporate social and environmental disclosure: A meta-analysis. Meditari Accountancy Research, 23 (3), 296-321.
  • Kansu, G. (1979). Some Practical Constraints on the Use of Appropriate Technologies in Turkish Industrial Development. Içinde A. Robinson (Ed.), Appropriate Technologies for Third World Development: Proceedings of a Conference held by the International Economic Association at Teheran, Iran (ss. 160-172). Palgrave Macmillan UK. Karpat, K. H. (2004). Military Interventions: Army-Civilian Relations in Turkey Before and After 1980. Içinde Studies on Turkish Politics and Society (ss. 353-377). Brill. Kutlay, M., & Kutlay, M. (2019). Political Economy of Turkey (1980–2001). The Political Economies of Turkey and Greece: Crisis and Change, 33-70. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326903327_Political_Economy_of_Turkey_1980-2001_Crisis_and_Change
  • Okyar, O. (1979). Development Background of the Turkish Economy, 1923–1973. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 10(3), 325-344.
  • Ozden, K., & Yilmaz, I. (2010). An Attempt at Pseudo-Democracy and Tactical Liberalization in Turkey: An Analysis of Ismet Inönü’s Decision to Transition to a Multi-Party Political System (SSRN Scholarly Paper 1777192). https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1777192
  • Öniş, Z. (2006). Globalization and party transformation: Turkey’s Justice and Development Party in perspective. Globalizing democracy: party politics in emerging democracies, 122-140. https://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf/globalization-and-party-transformation-ziya-onis-2005-2006.pdf
  • White, J. B. (2003). State Feminism, Modernization, and the Turkish Republican Woman. NWSA Journal, 15 (3), 145-159.
  • Yakubu, I. N., & Abokor, A. H. (2020). Factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey: An empirical analysis. Rajagiri Management Journal, 14 (2), 121-132.
  • Yildiz, E. (2020). A reassessment of Turkey’s import substitution strategy: Bureaucracy, politics, and the international organizations. İstanbul University Journal of Sociology, 40 (2), 599-623.
  • Zencirci, G. (2015). From property to civil society: The historical transformation of Vakifs in modern Turkey (1923–2013). International Journal of Middle East Studies, 47 (3), 533-554.

Trade Dynamics and Industrial Evolution: A Comprehensive Time Series Analysis of Turkey's Import-Export Trends and Manufacturing Growth (1923-2013)

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 5, 1334 - 1348, 03.11.2023

Öz

This study provides a comprehensive temporal analysis of Turkey's economic progression, focusing on its trade dynamics and manufacturing sector from 1923 to 2013. Utilizing time series analysis, we first delve into Turkey's import and export trends, observing a robust upward trajectory suggestive of sustained economic growth and greater integration into global trade networks. Periodic fluctuations, potentially reflective of global economic cycles or domestic policies, were also discerned. The manufacturing metrics—spanning the number of establishments, employment figures, annual payments, and input values—similarly showcased expansion, with year-on-year growth rates offering nuanced insights into the sector's evolution. Notably, correlations revealed a strong positive relationship between the proliferation of manufacturing establishments and employment figures, while annual payments and input values moved in congruence. Stationarity checks, crucial for time series forecasting, were conducted, leading to the application of the ARIMA modeling technique for predictive analysis. The model's predictions exhibited a close alignment with actual trade values, affirming its efficacy. Overall, this study elucidates Turkey's economic journey over nine decades, emphasizing its expanding trade engagements and consistent growth in the manufacturing realm.

Kaynakça

  • Balat, M. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey during the past two decades. Energy Policy, 36(1), 118-127. Bayar, Y. (2008). Turkish nation-building process: An analysis of language, education, and citizenship policies during the early Republic (1920-1938), https://escholarship.mcgill.ca/concern/theses/4m90dz76h.
  • Bilgin, P., & Ince, B. (2015). Security and citizenship in the global South: In/securing citizens in early republican Turkey (1923–1946). International Relations, 29 (4), 500-520.
  • Bulut, U., & Muratoglu, G. (2018). Renewable energy in Turkey: Great potential, low but increasing utilization, and an empirical analysis on renewable energy-growth nexus. Energy policy, 123, 240-250.
  • Cecen, A. A., Doğruel, A. S., & Doğruel, F. (1994). Economic growth and structural change in Turkey 1960–88. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 26 (1), 37-56.
  • Cetin, I. (2021). Audience as a temporal category: The tenth anniversary of Republic Day in Turkey. 18 (1).
  • Coşkun, V. (2013). Constitutional amendments under the justice and development party rule. Insight Turkey, 15 (4), 95-113.
  • Ertuğrul, A., & Selçuk, F. (2001). A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1980-2000. Russian & East European Finance and Trade, 37 (6), 6-30.
  • İlkkaracan, İ. (2012). Why so few women in the labor market in Turkey?. Feminist Economics, 18 (1), 1-37.
  • Nas, T. F., & Perry, M. J. (2000). Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and monetary policy in Turkey: 1960–1998. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18 (2), 170-180.
  • Öniş, Z., & Senses, F. (2007). Global dynamics, domestic coalitions and a reactive state: Major policy shifts in post-war Turkish economic development. METU Economic Research Center Working Paper, http://erc.metu.edu.tr/en/system/files/menu/series07/0706.pdf
  • Khlif, H., Hussainey, K., & Achek, I. (2015). The effect of national culture on the association between profitability and corporate social and environmental disclosure: A meta-analysis. Meditari Accountancy Research, 23 (3), 296-321.
  • Kansu, G. (1979). Some Practical Constraints on the Use of Appropriate Technologies in Turkish Industrial Development. Içinde A. Robinson (Ed.), Appropriate Technologies for Third World Development: Proceedings of a Conference held by the International Economic Association at Teheran, Iran (ss. 160-172). Palgrave Macmillan UK. Karpat, K. H. (2004). Military Interventions: Army-Civilian Relations in Turkey Before and After 1980. Içinde Studies on Turkish Politics and Society (ss. 353-377). Brill. Kutlay, M., & Kutlay, M. (2019). Political Economy of Turkey (1980–2001). The Political Economies of Turkey and Greece: Crisis and Change, 33-70. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326903327_Political_Economy_of_Turkey_1980-2001_Crisis_and_Change
  • Okyar, O. (1979). Development Background of the Turkish Economy, 1923–1973. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 10(3), 325-344.
  • Ozden, K., & Yilmaz, I. (2010). An Attempt at Pseudo-Democracy and Tactical Liberalization in Turkey: An Analysis of Ismet Inönü’s Decision to Transition to a Multi-Party Political System (SSRN Scholarly Paper 1777192). https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1777192
  • Öniş, Z. (2006). Globalization and party transformation: Turkey’s Justice and Development Party in perspective. Globalizing democracy: party politics in emerging democracies, 122-140. https://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf/globalization-and-party-transformation-ziya-onis-2005-2006.pdf
  • White, J. B. (2003). State Feminism, Modernization, and the Turkish Republican Woman. NWSA Journal, 15 (3), 145-159.
  • Yakubu, I. N., & Abokor, A. H. (2020). Factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey: An empirical analysis. Rajagiri Management Journal, 14 (2), 121-132.
  • Yildiz, E. (2020). A reassessment of Turkey’s import substitution strategy: Bureaucracy, politics, and the international organizations. İstanbul University Journal of Sociology, 40 (2), 599-623.
  • Zencirci, G. (2015). From property to civil society: The historical transformation of Vakifs in modern Turkey (1923–2013). International Journal of Middle East Studies, 47 (3), 533-554.
Toplam 19 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonometri (Diğer), Maliye Politikası, Modern Türk Tarihi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yavuz Selim Balcıoğlu 0000-0001-7138-2972

Kültigin Akçin 0000-0002-0202-8459

Umit Bayraktar Bu kişi benim 0009-0007-5292-9494

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 4 Ekim 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 3 Kasım 2023
Kabul Tarihi 4 Ekim 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 5

Kaynak Göster

APA Balcıoğlu, Y. S., Akçin, K., & Bayraktar, U. (2023). Trade Dynamics and Industrial Evolution: A Comprehensive Time Series Analysis of Turkey’s Import-Export Trends and Manufacturing Growth (1923-2013). Akademik Tarih Ve Düşünce Dergisi, 10(5), 1334-1348.

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