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The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51, 215 - 239, 31.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11

Öz

This study tested whether there was a relationship between migration, unemployment, and urbanization based on the Harris-Todaro model in 12 regions of Turkey, which were formed according to NUTS-1 classification, in the period between 2008 and 2019. For this purpose, panel data methods that consider cross-section dependency were used in the study. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the Harris-Todaro model was valid in TR1, TR2, TR3, TR4, TR5, and TR6 regions. In TR7, TR8, TR9, TRA, TRB, and TRC regions, it was found that the Harris-Todaro model was not valid.

Kaynakça

  • Akbas, Y.E. et al. (2012), “The Analysis of Fluctuations and Causality of Current Deficit, Economic Growth and Short Term Capital Flows of Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development”, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 4(22), 334-344.
  • Akbas, Y.E. et al. (2013), “Testing for Causality Between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7”, Panoeconomicus, 60(6), 791-812.
  • Aksu, E. et al. (2018), “The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market”, Discussion Paper Series, 12050, IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Germany, Bonn.
  • Aktas, E. & A. Sahin (2019), “Harris-Todaro Göç Modeli: Türkiye Örneği”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 28(1), 222-234.
  • Altunc, Ö.M. vd. (2017), “Dış Göçlerin Türkiye Ekonomisinde İşsizlik Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (1985-2015)”, Social Science Studies, 5(8), 197-212.
  • Aydemir, S. & M.C. Sahin (2018), “Zorunlu-Kitlesel Göç Olgusuna Sosyolojik Bir Yaklaşım: Türkiye’deki Suriyeli Sığınmacılar Örneği”, Dini Araştırmalar, 21(53), 121-148.
  • Aydın, F.F. & C. Levent (2021), “Göçün Sosyo-Ekonomik Etkileri: Düzey-1 Bölgelerinde Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(38), 397-427.
  • Bai, J. & C. Kao (2006), “Chapter 1- On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence”, Contributions to Economic Analysis, 274, 3-30.
  • Bai, J. & S. Ng (2006), “Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions”, Econometrica, 74(4), 1133-1150.
  • Boubtane, E. et al. (2013), “Immigration, Unemployment and GDP in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries”, Economic Modelling, 33, 261-269.
  • Brueckner, J.K. & H.A. Kim (2001), “Land Markets in the Harris-Todaro Model: A New Factor Equilibrating Rural-Urban Migration”, Journal of Regional Science, 41(3), 507-520.
  • Brueckner, J.K. & Y. Zenou (1999), “Harris-Todaro Models with a Land Market”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 317-339.
  • Brueckner, J.K. (1990), “Analysing Third World Urbanization: A Model With Empirical Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 38(3), 587-610.
  • Celik, R. & I. Arslan (2018), “Göç ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Uygulama”, Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 74, 65-75.
  • Ceritoglu, E. et al. (2015), “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design”, Working Paper, 15/5, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara.
  • Chaudhuri, S. (2000), “Rural-Urban Migration, The Informal Sector,Urban Unemployment, and Development Policies: A Theoretical Analysis”, Review of Development Economics, 4(3), 353-364.
  • Chuikina, V. & S.A. Fard (2012), “The Effects of Immigration on Unemployment: A Case Study of Sweden and The U.K.”, Bachelor Thesis in Economics, Malardalen University, School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology, Vasteras.
  • Espindola, A.L. et al. (2006), “A Harris-Todaro Agent-Based Model to Ruralurban Migration”, Brazilian Journal of Physics, 36, 603-609.
  • Esposito, P. et al. (2019), “Immigration and Unemployment in Europe: Does the Core-Periphery Dualism Matter?”, GLO Discussion Paper Series, 310, Global Labor Organization, Germany.
  • Evin, H. vd. (2020), “Kentleşme ve Göç İlişkisi: Türkiye ve Düzey 1 Bölgeleri İçin Bir Uygulama”, Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 11(2), 142-157.
  • Fromentin, V. (2013), “The Relationship Between Immigration and Unemployment: The Case of France”, Economic Analysis & Policy, 43(1), 51-66.
  • Harris, J.R. & M.P. Todaro (1970), “Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis”, American Economic Review, 60 (1), 126-142.
  • Heid, B. & M. Larch (2012), “Migration, Trade and Unemployment”, SSRN Electronic Journal, 6(4), 1-40.
  • Jean, S. & M. Jimenez (2007), “The Unemployment Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries”, Working Papers, 563, OECD Economics Department, France.
  • Keles, R. (1972), Şehirciliğin Kuramsal Temelleri, Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Yayınları.
  • Koseoglu, M. & G. Artan (2020), “Göç, İşsizlik ve Gelir Arasındaki İlişkilerin Analizi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği”, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 6(1), 61-81.
  • Lee, E. (1966), “A Theory of Migrarion”, Demography, 3(1), 47-57.
  • Markusen, A. (1996), “Sticky Places in Slippery Space: A Typology of Industrial Districts”, Economic Geography, 72, 293-313.
  • Marshall, A. (1890), Principles of Economics, London: Macmillan.
  • Pesaran M.H. (2007), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2006), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Working Paper, 0346, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Cambridge.
  • Pigou, A. (1956), Memorials of Alfred Marshall, New York: Kelly & Millman Inc.
  • Ravenstein, E.G. (1985), “The Laws of Migration”, Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235.
  • Sancar, C. & Y.E. Akbas (2020), “Türkiye’de Düzey 2 Bölgeleri Ölçeğinde İç Göç ve İşsizlik İlişkisininEkonometrik Analizi”, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 11(1), 41-57.
  • Schultz, T.W. (1961), “Investment in Human Capital”, The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
  • Sjaastad, L.A. (1962), “The Costs and Returns of Human Migration”, Journal of Political Economy, 70(5), 80-93.
  • Todaro, M.P. (1971), “Income Expectations, Rural-Urban Migration and Employment in Africa”, International Labour Review, 104 (5), 391-413.
  • Tripathi, S. & H. Kaur (2017), “Determinants of Rural to Urban Migration in Large Agglomerations in India: An Empirical Analysis”, MPRA Paper, 76484, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Phagwara, Punjab.
  • United Nations (2019), World Urbanization Prospects The 2018 Revision, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008), “A Panel Co-integration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • Yılmaz, M. (2015), “Türkiye’de Kırsal Nüfusun Değişimi ve İllere Göre Dağılımı (1980-2012)”, Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, 20(33), 161-187.
  • Zeng, S.H. & J.C. Xia (2016), “Why Rapid Urbanization Process can not Improve Employment Absorption Capacity of Service Industry in China - Also on The Interactive Mode Innovation Between Service Industry Development with Urbanization Under The Background of Transformation and Upgrading”, China Finance and Economic Review, 4(9), 1-12.

Türkiye’de İşsizlik ve Kentleşmenin Göç Üzerindeki Etkisi: Harris-Todaro Modeli Açısından Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51, 215 - 239, 31.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Düzey 1 sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye’nin 12 bölgesinde 2008-2019 döneminde Harris-Todaro modelinin geçerli olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel veri yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, TR1, TR2, TR3, TR4, TR5 ve TR6 bölgelerinde Harris-Todaro modelinin geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. TR7, TR8, TR9, TRA, TRB ve TRC bölgelerinde Harris-Todaro modeli geçerli değildir.

Kaynakça

  • Akbas, Y.E. et al. (2012), “The Analysis of Fluctuations and Causality of Current Deficit, Economic Growth and Short Term Capital Flows of Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development”, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 4(22), 334-344.
  • Akbas, Y.E. et al. (2013), “Testing for Causality Between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7”, Panoeconomicus, 60(6), 791-812.
  • Aksu, E. et al. (2018), “The Impact of Mass Migration of Syrians on the Turkish Labor Market”, Discussion Paper Series, 12050, IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Germany, Bonn.
  • Aktas, E. & A. Sahin (2019), “Harris-Todaro Göç Modeli: Türkiye Örneği”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 28(1), 222-234.
  • Altunc, Ö.M. vd. (2017), “Dış Göçlerin Türkiye Ekonomisinde İşsizlik Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (1985-2015)”, Social Science Studies, 5(8), 197-212.
  • Aydemir, S. & M.C. Sahin (2018), “Zorunlu-Kitlesel Göç Olgusuna Sosyolojik Bir Yaklaşım: Türkiye’deki Suriyeli Sığınmacılar Örneği”, Dini Araştırmalar, 21(53), 121-148.
  • Aydın, F.F. & C. Levent (2021), “Göçün Sosyo-Ekonomik Etkileri: Düzey-1 Bölgelerinde Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(38), 397-427.
  • Bai, J. & C. Kao (2006), “Chapter 1- On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence”, Contributions to Economic Analysis, 274, 3-30.
  • Bai, J. & S. Ng (2006), “Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions”, Econometrica, 74(4), 1133-1150.
  • Boubtane, E. et al. (2013), “Immigration, Unemployment and GDP in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries”, Economic Modelling, 33, 261-269.
  • Brueckner, J.K. & H.A. Kim (2001), “Land Markets in the Harris-Todaro Model: A New Factor Equilibrating Rural-Urban Migration”, Journal of Regional Science, 41(3), 507-520.
  • Brueckner, J.K. & Y. Zenou (1999), “Harris-Todaro Models with a Land Market”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 29, 317-339.
  • Brueckner, J.K. (1990), “Analysing Third World Urbanization: A Model With Empirical Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 38(3), 587-610.
  • Celik, R. & I. Arslan (2018), “Göç ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Uygulama”, Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 74, 65-75.
  • Ceritoglu, E. et al. (2015), “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design”, Working Paper, 15/5, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara.
  • Chaudhuri, S. (2000), “Rural-Urban Migration, The Informal Sector,Urban Unemployment, and Development Policies: A Theoretical Analysis”, Review of Development Economics, 4(3), 353-364.
  • Chuikina, V. & S.A. Fard (2012), “The Effects of Immigration on Unemployment: A Case Study of Sweden and The U.K.”, Bachelor Thesis in Economics, Malardalen University, School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology, Vasteras.
  • Espindola, A.L. et al. (2006), “A Harris-Todaro Agent-Based Model to Ruralurban Migration”, Brazilian Journal of Physics, 36, 603-609.
  • Esposito, P. et al. (2019), “Immigration and Unemployment in Europe: Does the Core-Periphery Dualism Matter?”, GLO Discussion Paper Series, 310, Global Labor Organization, Germany.
  • Evin, H. vd. (2020), “Kentleşme ve Göç İlişkisi: Türkiye ve Düzey 1 Bölgeleri İçin Bir Uygulama”, Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 11(2), 142-157.
  • Fromentin, V. (2013), “The Relationship Between Immigration and Unemployment: The Case of France”, Economic Analysis & Policy, 43(1), 51-66.
  • Harris, J.R. & M.P. Todaro (1970), “Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis”, American Economic Review, 60 (1), 126-142.
  • Heid, B. & M. Larch (2012), “Migration, Trade and Unemployment”, SSRN Electronic Journal, 6(4), 1-40.
  • Jean, S. & M. Jimenez (2007), “The Unemployment Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries”, Working Papers, 563, OECD Economics Department, France.
  • Keles, R. (1972), Şehirciliğin Kuramsal Temelleri, Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Yayınları.
  • Koseoglu, M. & G. Artan (2020), “Göç, İşsizlik ve Gelir Arasındaki İlişkilerin Analizi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği”, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 6(1), 61-81.
  • Lee, E. (1966), “A Theory of Migrarion”, Demography, 3(1), 47-57.
  • Markusen, A. (1996), “Sticky Places in Slippery Space: A Typology of Industrial Districts”, Economic Geography, 72, 293-313.
  • Marshall, A. (1890), Principles of Economics, London: Macmillan.
  • Pesaran M.H. (2007), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2006), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Working Paper, 0346, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Cambridge.
  • Pigou, A. (1956), Memorials of Alfred Marshall, New York: Kelly & Millman Inc.
  • Ravenstein, E.G. (1985), “The Laws of Migration”, Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235.
  • Sancar, C. & Y.E. Akbas (2020), “Türkiye’de Düzey 2 Bölgeleri Ölçeğinde İç Göç ve İşsizlik İlişkisininEkonometrik Analizi”, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 11(1), 41-57.
  • Schultz, T.W. (1961), “Investment in Human Capital”, The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
  • Sjaastad, L.A. (1962), “The Costs and Returns of Human Migration”, Journal of Political Economy, 70(5), 80-93.
  • Todaro, M.P. (1971), “Income Expectations, Rural-Urban Migration and Employment in Africa”, International Labour Review, 104 (5), 391-413.
  • Tripathi, S. & H. Kaur (2017), “Determinants of Rural to Urban Migration in Large Agglomerations in India: An Empirical Analysis”, MPRA Paper, 76484, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Phagwara, Punjab.
  • United Nations (2019), World Urbanization Prospects The 2018 Revision, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008), “A Panel Co-integration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • Yılmaz, M. (2015), “Türkiye’de Kırsal Nüfusun Değişimi ve İllere Göre Dağılımı (1980-2012)”, Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, 20(33), 161-187.
  • Zeng, S.H. & J.C. Xia (2016), “Why Rapid Urbanization Process can not Improve Employment Absorption Capacity of Service Industry in China - Also on The Interactive Mode Innovation Between Service Industry Development with Urbanization Under The Background of Transformation and Upgrading”, China Finance and Economic Review, 4(9), 1-12.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Canan Sancar 0000-0002-4578-9573

Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-9355-2802

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 28 Ocak 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 11 Haziran 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 30 Sayı: 51

Kaynak Göster

APA Sancar, C., & Akbaş, Y. E. (2022). The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 215-239. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11
AMA Sancar C, Akbaş YE. The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2022;30(51):215-239. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11
Chicago Sancar, Canan, ve Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş. “The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in Terms of the Harris-Todaro Model”. Sosyoekonomi 30, sy. 51 (Ocak 2022): 215-39. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11.
EndNote Sancar C, Akbaş YE (01 Ocak 2022) The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model. Sosyoekonomi 30 51 215–239.
IEEE C. Sancar ve Y. E. Akbaş, “The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 30, sy. 51, ss. 215–239, 2022, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11.
ISNAD Sancar, Canan - Akbaş, Yusuf Ekrem. “The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in Terms of the Harris-Todaro Model”. Sosyoekonomi 30/51 (Ocak 2022), 215-239. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11.
JAMA Sancar C, Akbaş YE. The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30:215–239.
MLA Sancar, Canan ve Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş. “The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in Terms of the Harris-Todaro Model”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 30, sy. 51, 2022, ss. 215-39, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.11.
Vancouver Sancar C, Akbaş YE. The Effect of Unemployment and Urbanization on Migration in Turkey: An Evaluation in terms of the Harris-Todaro Model. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30(51):215-39.